Does Macro‐Prudential Regulation Leak? Evidence from a UK Policy Experiment

The regulation of bank capital as a means of smoothing the credit cycle is a central element of forthcoming macro‐prudential regimes internationally. For such regulation to be effective in controlling the aggregate supply of credit it must be the case that: (i) changes in capital requirements affect loan supply by regulated banks, and (ii) unregulated substitute sources of credit are unable to offset changes in credit supply by affected banks. This paper examines micro evidence—lacking to date—on both questions, using a unique data set. In the UK, regulators have imposed time‐varying, bank‐specific minimum capital requirements since Basel I. It is found that regulated banks (UK‐owned banks and resident foreign subsidiaries) reduce lending in response to tighter capital requirements. But unregulated banks (resident foreign branches) increase lending in response to tighter capital requirements on a relevant reference group of regulated banks. This “leakage” is substantial, amounting to about one‐third of the initial impulse from the regulatory change.     

A Reconsideration of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis

The worst and longest depressions have tended to occur after periods of prolonged, and reasonably stable, prosperity. This results in part from agents rationally updating their expectations during good times and hence becoming more optimistic about future economic prospects. Investors then increase their leverage and shift their portfolios toward projects that would previously have been considered too risky. So, when a downturn does eventually occur, the financial crisis and the extent of default become more severe. Whereas a general appreciation of this syndrome dates back to Minsky (1992) and even beyond, to Irving Fisher ( 1933 ), we model it formally. In addition, endogenous default introduces a pecuniary externality since investors do not factor in the impact of their decision to take risk and default on the borrowing cost. We explore the relative advantages of alternative regulations in reducing financial fragility and suggest a novel criterion for improvement of aggregate welfare.     

A path analysis interpretation of consumer decision-making under conditions of potential risk

This study investigates consumer decision-making processes under conditions of potential risk to personal safety. Potential risk was defined as the individual's subjective interpretation of the likelihood of exposure to hazard or danger and their estimation of the consequences of such exposure. The main concerns were to determine under what conditions consumers would choose a flame resistant apparel item over a non-flame resistant apparel item and to discover the amount of money consumers were willing to pay for the flame resistant (FR) characteristic in apparel. A model of the expected decision process was developed. The variables in the model were (i) internal/external (I/E) control (x₁), (ii) awareness of flame-resistant facts (x₂), (iii) perceived risk (x₃), (iv) buying goals (x₄), and (v) willingness to pay for the FR characteristic. Data used to test the hypothesized relationships among the variables were collected from 136 mothers of pre-school-age children. Path analysis interpretations revealed that the following were the most salient variables affecting the consumer's willingness to pay: (i) perceived risk of clothing-burn injuries; (ii) consumer's feelings of I/E control; and (iii) FR safety as a buying goal.     

Active labour market policies in Germany: do regional labour markets benefit?

This article examines on a regional level whether active labour market policies (ALMP) improve the matching process. To take the fact of heterogeneous search effectiveness during programme participation into account, we distinguish between current and former programme participants. Our findings based on a regional augmented matching function show that higher search effectiveness due to ALMP is not outweighed by indirect effects on nonparticipants. The total number of matches in a region increases with a higher share of former programme participants among the jobseekers. However, these effects largely differ between programme types.

Abbreviation OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)ALMP (active labour market policy)     

Time Variation in Liquidity: The Role of Market-Maker Inventories and Revenues

We show that market-maker balance sheet and income statement variables explain time variation in liquidity, suggesting liquidity-supplier financing constraints matter. Using 11 years of NYSE specialist inventory positions and trading revenues, we find that aggregate market-level and specialist firm-level spreads widen when specialists have large positions or lose money. The effects are nonlinear and most prominent when inventories are big or trading results have been particularly poor. These sensitivities are smaller after specialist firm mergers, consistent with deep pockets easing financing constraints. Finally, compared to low volatility stocks, the liquidity of high volatility stocks is more sensitive to inventories and losses.     

Knowledge-Based Systems in Retail Banking: A Survey of Current Practice

This paper examines the adoption of knowledge based systems (KBS) among UK banks and similar organizations. Its findings are based upon a survey of 20 large banks and building societies in which data on KBS applications were collected by questionnaire and interview. Data were obtained on application types, development costs, systems users and future intentions. The findings are presented below in the form of an analysis and a number of short case studies. The study found that while fourteen of the twenty organizations had some experience with KBS the technology was very marginal to the banks’ information technology (IT) strategies, with no bank committing more than 2% of their IT budgets to KBS and most spending much less. The study concludes by examining some possible explanations for the low level of KBS usage and considers the case of KBS in the context of an innovation diffusion model. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bailouts and the modeling of bank distress

In this article, we develop a model for predicting distress events among large banks. We show that a bailout possibility induces different behaviors among small and large banks, and the proposed failure prediction model for large banks is thus considerably different from that for small banks. Major bank-level fundamentals show opposite conjecture directions for large versus small banks. The Tier 1 capital ratio, which is under the scrutiny of regulators and investors, has almost no distress prediction power among large banks. However, banks rescued by governments tend to maintain a lower Tier 1 ratio. The cost of funding in large banks is negatively correlated with the probability of failure, reflecting the fact that lenders internalize the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) policy and demand a lower interest rate from TBTF banks.     

Dispersion in Dispersion: Measuring Establishment-Level Differences in Productivity

We describe new experimental productivity dispersion statistics, Dispersion Statistics on Productivity (DiSP), jointly produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Census Bureau, that complement the official BLS industry-level productivity statistics. The BLS has a long history of producing industry-level productivity statistics, which represent the average establishment-level productivity within industries when appropriately weighted. These statistics cannot, however, tell us about the variation in productivity levels across establishments within those industries. Dispersion in productivity across businesses can provide information about the nature of competition and frictions within sectors and the sources of rising wage inequality across businesses. DiSP data show enormous differences in productivity across establishments within industries in the manufacturing sector. We find substantial variation in dispersion across industries, increasing dispersion from 1997 to 2016, and countercyclical total factor productivity dispersion. We hope DiSP will enable further research into understanding productivity differences across industries and establishments and over time.     

Device-mediated customer behaviour on the internet: A systematic literature review

The proliferation of smartphones, tablets and other digital devices in addition to traditional computers has transformed the Internet into a device-mediated environment. While these devices provide immediate access to similar Internet sources, they differ significantly in their characteristics, such as screen size, operation mode and context of use. As a consequence, behaviours on the Internet along the customer journey vary substantially depending on the device used. To summarize the fast-growing body of research on device-mediated customer behaviour, a systematic, framework-based literature review of 59 articles from the last decade was conducted. Through an examination of the antecedents, decisions and outcomes investigated in the publications, the review presents a conceptual framework that highlights the relation between device characteristics, decision processes and behavioural outcomes. The review further summarizes the theories, contexts and methods employed in the studies and sets an extensive future research agenda. We found that the extant literature lacks comprehensive theories and clear definitions of digital devices in the omnichannel environment. Furthermore, existing findings should be generalized for other contexts (e.g. industries and countries) and validated via the introduction of other research designs and methods. The understanding of device-mediated behaviour and the consequently arising marketing measures remains scarce. Thus, this review advances the comprehension of customer behaviour on the Internet and provides researchers and practitioners with information on the implications for customer experience and omnichannel management.